{"id":2201,"date":"2025-11-13T09:32:04","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T09:32:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/2025\/11\/13\/observer-thermal-trace-from-c3s-a-powerful-new-way-to-monitor-heat-and-cold-stress\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T09:32:04","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T09:32:04","slug":"observer-thermal-trace-from-c3s-a-powerful-new-way-to-monitor-heat-and-cold-stress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/2025\/11\/13\/observer-thermal-trace-from-c3s-a-powerful-new-way-to-monitor-heat-and-cold-stress\/","title":{"rendered":"OBSERVER: Thermal Trace\u202ffrom C3S \u2013 a powerful new way to\u202fmonitor\u202fheat and cold stress\u202f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>OBSERVER: Thermal Trace\u202ffrom C3S \u2013 a powerful new way to\u202fmonitor\u202fheat and cold stress\u202f<br \/>\n<span><span>enora@ALSOcons\u2026<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Thu, 13\/11\/2025 &#8211; 10:32<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><strong>The summer of 2025 in Europe highlighted the growing impact of extreme heat. According to the <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/\"><strong><u>Copernicus Climate Change Service<\/u><\/strong><\/a><strong> (C3S)\u202f<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/climate-bulletins\"><strong><u>Climate Bulletins<\/u><\/strong><\/a><strong>, successive heatwaves in June, July, and August pushed \u201cfeels-like\u201d temperatures\u202fto dangerous levels\u202fin parts of the continent.\u202fThese recurring events highlight a clear, data-backed trend:\u202fa\u202frising number of\u202fheat stress days,\u202fwhich affect\u202fnot only comfort but also health,\u202fproductivity,\u202fand wellbeing.\u202fTo help\u202findividuals,\u202forganisations, and decision-makers assess these impacts, C3S has developed\u202f<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/thermaltrace.climate.copernicus.eu\/?agg=daily&amp;anomaly=false&amp;date=2025-10-26&amp;heat=true&amp;lat=50.86&amp;lng=4.35&amp;variable=utci_daily_max_cat\"><strong><u>Thermal Trace<\/u><\/strong><\/a><strong>\u202f\u2013 a\u202fnew app\u202fwhich provides\u202fnear real-time insights into heat and cold stress. In this Observer, we take a close look at the Thermal Trace app.\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h5>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The pattern of growing health impacts from extreme heat is echoed globally.\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2025\/oct\/29\/rising-heat-kills-one-person-a-minute-worldwide-lancet-countdown\"><u>New findings<\/u><\/a>\u202fpublished by\u202f<em>The Lancet Countdown<\/em>\u202freveal that rising global heat is now killing one person every minute around the world. The health impacts from climate change are increasingly evident. As temperatures climb, exposure and vulnerability are converging in ways which cost lives every day.<\/p>\n<p>In this context, Thermal Trace provides\u202fa valuable\u202ftool. This intuitive application turns more than eighty years of\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/utci.lobelia.earth\/what-is-utci\"><strong><u>Universal Thermal Climate Index<\/u><\/strong><u>\u202f<\/u><\/a>(UTCI) data into clear, actionable insights on heat and cold stress, presented through maps, charts and downloadable tables which are ready to use in briefings,\u202fdashboards\u202fand media stories. In doing so, it helps citizens, journalists,\u202fplanners\u202fand public-health professionals make sense of evolving risks and prepare more effectively for the impacts of extreme temperatures.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThermal Trace was created to provide crucial insights into heat and cold stress, which are key factors for human health as heatwaves become more frequent and severe. The app provides quick,\u202ffree\u202fand visually engaging access to global maps and charts on thermal stress,\u201d said Rebecca Emerton, Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and C3S coordinator for the app\u2019s development.<\/p>\n\n<figure role=\"group\" class=\"align-center\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/u8UAERNTaQY?si=rhPmTQQxve6890y1\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Thermal Trace App\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"b2c2ca04-3b77-49bd-b7a2-a9ce5ffecaf3\" height=\"1073\" src=\"https:\/\/www.copernicus.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/image%20%284%29.png\" width=\"1910\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/a><figcaption><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/u8UAERNTaQY?si=rhPmTQQxve6890y1\"><em>Video: Thermal Trace App &#8211; Copernicus Climate Change Service &amp; ECMWF<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>What Thermal Trace does<\/strong>\u202f\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p>Thermal Trace is a web application developed by C3S at ECMWF\u202fwhich allows users to explore, visualise, share and extract more than 80 years of global heat and cold stress data in just a few seconds. It draws primarily on\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/cds.climate.copernicus.eu\/datasets\/derived-utci-historical?tab=overview\"><u>ERA5-HEAT<\/u><\/a>, a UTCI dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis, updated in near real time, with a typical latency of about five days. This near-real-time coverage means the app is ideal for unpacking recent events, benchmarking them against the 1991\u20132020\u202freference period, and tracking changes over time.\u202fThe app is a powerful tool for past event analysis and visualisation, but it does not\u202fprovide\u202flive\u202fwarnings or forecasts. For real-time safety advice, users should always consult national meteorological and public-health services.\u202f\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>At first launch,\u202fThermal Trace allows to explore either cold or heat stress data; it then opens on a global map showing the peak heat (or cold) stress on the latest available day. From there, you can choose daily, monthly,\u202fseasonal\u202for annual periods; pick locations by clicking on the map, typing a place name, using your device\u2019s geolocation, or even drawing a custom region; and switch effortlessly between a set of clear visuals:\u202f<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Maps<\/strong>\u202fof the chosen metric (for example, peak heat stress in June 2025).\u202f<\/li>\n<li><strong>Time series<\/strong>, which reveal how a location\u2019s stress metrics evolve through time.\u202f<\/li>\n<li><strong>Heatmaps<\/strong>\u202fwhich provide a compact \u201cat-a-glance\u201d view of annual or seasonal patterns reminiscent of climate stripes.\u202f\u202f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The app includes\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/cds.climate.copernicus.eu\/datasets\/derived-utci-historical?tab=overview\"><u>post-processed thermal comfort data<\/u><\/a>\u202fwhich are directly relevant for communicating on heat-health episodes, such as the number of heat stress days, \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/what-tropical-night\"><u>tropical\u202fnights\u2019\u202f<\/u><\/a>and cold stress days, alongside daily through to annual maxima and minima. For quick analysis, the data behind every chart can be downloaded for use, while the full dataset is accessible via the\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/cds.climate.copernicus.eu\/datasets\/derived-utci-historical?tab=overview\"><u>Climate Data Store<\/u><\/a>\u202ffor more technical workflows. An interactive tutorial in the app helps first-time users find their way around the app\u2019s functions.\u202f\u202f<\/p>\n\n<figure role=\"group\" class=\"align-center\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Heatmap Brussels, Belgium\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"e04b2f6a-54c0-4293-afd7-86d731d8a6b7\" height=\"459\" src=\"https:\/\/www.copernicus.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/ThermalTrace_ModerateHeatStressNumDays_Seasonal_Heatmap_50.75N4.25E.png\" width=\"1200\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><figcaption><em>Heatmap of individual variables for Brussels, Belgium in June-August 2025. Credit: European Union, Copernicus C3S Thermal Trace.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>The UTCI: a health-relevant \u2018feels-like\u2019 measure<\/strong>\u202f\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p>The UTCI expresses a feels-like temperature in \u00b0C and categorises heat stress into moderate (26-32\u00b0C), strong (32-38\u00b0C),\u202fvery strong\u202f(38-46\u00b0C) and extreme (&gt;46\u00b0C). For cold stress, UTCI defines categories from slight (9 to 0\u00b0C) down to extreme (below -40\u00b0C). By focusing on the human body\u2019s response to weather, UTCI is more representative of potential health outcomes than air temperature alone, especially during humid heat or cold, windy conditions.\u202f(Read\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/heat-stress-what-it-and-how-it-measured\"><u>this article<\/u><\/a>\u202fto learn more about heat stress and how it is measured.)\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For daily selections, Thermal Trace shows hourly variations in both air temperature and feels-like temperature, including the two days before and after the selected date. This is particularly helpful for reconstructing on-the-ground exposure during specific events (for instance, a heatwave day in C\u00f3rdoba where air temperature peaked around 40.2\u00b0C while the feels-like reached ~43.3\u00b0C).\u202fFor monthly,\u202fseasonal\u202for annual views,\u202fadditional\u202fcharts are available showing the number of heat stress days, tropical\u202fnights\u202fand cold stress days. These help users quantify the duration and intensity of events, which are two key drivers of health risk often overlooked in simple maximum-temperature summaries.\u202f\u202f<\/p>\n\n<figure role=\"group\" class=\"align-center\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"June heat stress in Thermal Trace App\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"d7478c2e-e809-4a30-bb69-4a1efce3a52f\" height=\"1140\" src=\"https:\/\/www.copernicus.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/1-thermal_trace_screenshot_peak_heat_stress_in_june_2025_0.png\" width=\"1937\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><figcaption><em>Monthly peak heat stress for June 2025, based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) from the ERA5-HEAT dataset. The vast majority of Europe, but also most of the tropical and temperate regions are seen under conditions of at least strong heat stress. Credit: European Union, Copernicus C3S Thermal Trace.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>A \u201ctime machine\u201d for case studies<\/strong>\u202f\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p>Thermal Trace also functions as a time machine for climate communication and research. For example, you can instantly pull up the 1962\/63 \u201cBig Freeze\u201d\u202fin Europe\u202fto visualise how seasonal minimum feels-like temperatures deviated from average across Europe and highlight the years which stand out most\u202fin a given\u202flocation. Equally, you can map the number of days with at least strong heat stress or cold stress in a given year, for example, the record-warm 2024, and pair that with a long-term time series for a city like Athens, tracking the annual counts of very strong and extreme heat-stress days since 1940.\u202f\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu\/en\/observatory\/news-archive-observatory\/over-62-700-deaths-associated-with-record-breaking-heat-during-the-summer-of-2024-in-europe\"><u>Estimates show that there were almost 63,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in 2024<\/u><\/a>,\u201d said Emerton. \u201cThe data behind Thermal Trace show a clear signal: heat stress is increasing in Europe, which will have impacts on public health.\u201d\u202f\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<figure role=\"group\" class=\"align-center\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Cold anomalies in Europe\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"1ffd67bc-3401-4cd0-bd14-9b2a1d59b62b\" height=\"705\" src=\"https:\/\/www.copernicus.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/Screenshot%202025-11-13%20105632.png\" width=\"1202\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><figcaption><em>Anomalies in the seasonal minimum feels-like temperature in Europe during the winter of 1962-1963, showing widespread cold anomalies. Inset: A heatmap of seasonal minimum feels-like temperature anomalies for the box over north-western France, putting the chosen season in the context of other years and seasons. Shown in dark mode. Credit: European Union, Copernicus C3S Thermal Trace.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Designed for reliability and speed<\/strong>\u202f\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p>Behind the scenes, Thermal Trace employs Zarr, an open-source format which stores large multidimensional datasets in directly accessible pieces, as part of the ECMWF Data Stores strategy to deploy a\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/work-progress-our-data-stores-turn-arco\"><u>cloud-ready ARCO Data Lake<\/u><\/a>.\u202fCombined with the upgraded Climate Data Store infrastructure, this architecture allows the app to\u202frender\u202fmaps and charts quickly by loading only the data\u202frequired\u202ffor the user\u2019s current view, rather than moving entire files across the network. The result is an experience which supports rapid exploration at global scale without sacrificing reproducibility or traceability,\u202fsimilar to\u202fthe\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/era-explorer.climate.copernicus.eu\/?lat=50.86&amp;lng=4.35&amp;plot=0\"><u>ERA Explorer app<\/u><\/a>.\u202f<\/p>\n<p>As previously mentioned, Thermal Trace is not a real-time alerting tool. Its strength lies in helping users understand and analyse thermal stress, including how factors such as humidity, wind, and solar radiation can make the feels-like temperature differ\u202fgreatly from\u202fthe actual temperature. It is designed for event reconstruction,\u202fcomparison\u202fand trend analysis rather than for issuing immediate warnings. ECMWF provides UTCI forecasts separately, while real-time safety advice\u202fremains\u202fthe remit of national weather forecasting agencies.\u202f\u202f \u00a0<\/p>\n\n<figure role=\"group\" class=\"align-center\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Days with strong to extreme heat stress in Europe\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"75851d59-df39-4e23-b704-e734d2d14003\" height=\"1140\" src=\"https:\/\/www.copernicus.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/4-thermal_trace_screenshot_number_strong_heat_stress_days_2024_europe.png\" width=\"1940\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><figcaption><em>Number of days with at least \u2019strong heat stress\u2019 during 2024 in Europe, and bar chart showing the number of\u202fvery strong\u202fand extreme heat stress days during each year from1940 to 2024 in Athens. Credit: European Union, Copernicus C3S Thermal Trace.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>How to use the app<\/strong>\u202f\u00a0<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Localised heat briefings<\/strong>: Draw a small region covering the area you are interested in, choose a daily, monthly,\u202fseasonal\u202for yearly\u202ftimeframe, and export the count of strong\/very strong\u202fheat-stress days plus the tropical\u202fnights\u202fmetric for the period in question.\u202f\u202f<\/li>\n<li><strong>Event reconstructions<\/strong>:\u202fSwitch to the daily map view, and for a heatwave day, for example, use the charts to view hourly feels-like vs air temperature. This helps\u202fidentify\u202fperiods of peak physiological strain.\u202f\u202f<\/li>\n<li><strong>Long-term planning<\/strong>: Use annual heatmaps to brief decision-makers on trajectories since 1940. The visual similarity to climate stripes makes the message intuitive for non-specialists.\u202f\u202f<\/li>\n<li><strong>Comparative risk<\/strong>: Compare your\u202flocal\u202f2024\u20132025 data, for example, with neighbouring regions to understand relative exposure.\u202f\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Related tools and where to find the data<\/strong>\u202f\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p>Thermal Trace is the result of months of design and development across departments at C3S and the wider ECWMF, with the support of the\u202fASPECT <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspect-project.eu\/\"><u>Horizon Europe project<\/u><\/a>.\u202f<\/p>\n<p>Thermal Trace joins other C3S applications, such as\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/pulse.climate.copernicus.eu\/\"><u>Climate Pulse<\/u><\/a>, the interactive\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/atlas.climate.copernicus.eu\/atlas\"><u>Climate Atlas<\/u><\/a>, ERA Explorer and the\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.climate.copernicus.eu\/global-temperature-trend-monitor\/\"><u>Global Temperature Trend Monitor<\/u><\/a>. All of these are built to increase the accessibility of C3S datasets. Together, these tools provide a coherent suite for journalists, educators, policy\u202fteams\u202fand anyone wanting to connect global climate signals to local experience.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The statistics highlight the scale of exposure and associated health risks. Thermal Trace equips its users with the clearest possible view of the extreme conditions which threaten our health.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>            <img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.copernicus.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-11\/1-thermal_trace_screenshot_peak_heat_stress_in_june_2025.png\" width=\"1937\" height=\"1140\" alt=\"Screenshot of Thermal Trace App showing heat stress\" title=\"OBSERVER: Thermal Trace\u202ffrom C3S \u2013 a powerful new way to\u202fmonitor\u202fheat and cold stress\u202f\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Thu, 13\/11\/2025 &#8211; 12:00<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OBSERVER: Thermal Trace\u202ffrom C3S \u2013 a powerful new way to\u202fmonitor\u202fheat and cold stress\u202f enora@ALSOcons\u2026 Thu, 13\/11\/2025 &#8211; 10:32 The summer of 2025 in Europe highlighted the growing impact of extreme heat. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)\u202fClimate Bulletins, successive heatwaves in June, July, and August pushed \u201cfeels-like\u201d temperatures\u202fto dangerous levels\u202fin parts of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2202,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rss"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2201"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2201\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/copernicus.gis.is\/homepage\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}